UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is set to report second-quarter earnings Thursday morning before the bell, and Wall Street is watching closely.
The stock is trading at $415.85, down 2.20% on Wednesday, putting it under some pressure heading into the print.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, UNH
Analysts expect EPS of $4.85 and revenue of $110.77 billion. That would represent roughly flat revenue growth year on year, a slowdown from the 12.9% growth posted in the same quarter last year.
That’s a notable step down, but context matters. The market is aware of it, and estimates have largely held steady over the past 30 days.
Last quarter, UNH delivered EPS of $7.23, beating the $6.56 estimate. Revenue came in at $111.72 billion, edging past the $109.57 billion forecast. Three consecutive EPS beats heading into this one.
UnitedHealth is the first major healthcare provider to report this season, so there’s no peer read-through to lean on. Investors are flying a bit blind here.
Two areas stand out heading into earnings. First, Medicare Advantage membership trends and any commentary around the recent government payment hike — that’s the macro tailwind underpinning sentiment across the group right now.
Second, Optum. The services and pharmacy benefit arm needs to show growth to help offset what could be flat-to-down consolidated revenue at the top line.
Analysts have been busy sharpening their price targets ahead of the report. TD Cowen kept its Hold rating but raised its target to $430. Truist Securities went more bullish, maintaining Buy with a new $480 target. Keybanc also raised its target to $475, keeping an Overweight rating — all three moves coming on July 14.
The overall analyst consensus sits at Buy, with an average price target of $432.63. That implies meaningful upside from current levels, assuming the quarter holds up.
Healthcare stocks in the provider and services space have seen positive momentum recently. The sector is up 7.6% on average over the past month. UNH itself has gained 3.5% over that same stretch, though it’s giving some of that back today.
UnitedHealth has missed Wall Street’s revenue estimates multiple times over the past two years, which adds a layer of caution heading into Thursday’s number.
The company reports before market open Thursday, July 17.
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