Pre-Market Update: August CPI Comes in at 3.4%, Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump to 72%

TLDR

• US stock futures rose Friday morning after August CPI data came in at 3.4% year-over-year, matching July’s reading
• Monthly inflation jumped to 0.4%, up from 0.1% in July, keeping pressure on the Fed
• Odds of a Fed rate hike next week climbed to 72%, up from a 50-50 split last week
• Brent crude topped $108 per barrel before easing, with diesel hitting a record $6 per gallon
• Oracle shares jumped over 5% in premarket after posting strong cloud computing growth

US stock futures climbed Friday morning as investors processed fresh inflation data showing prices remain above the Federal Reserve’s target ahead of its policy meeting next week.

Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%. S&P 500 futures also gained 0.5%, and Nasdaq-100 contracts edged up 0.6%.

This came after all three major indexes posted a four-day losing streak and were on track for weekly declines.

What the CPI Report Showed

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August Consumer Price Index report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

AUGUST U.S. 🇺🇸 INFLATION DATA:

CPI 3.4% YoY, (Est. 3.4%)
CPI 0.4% MoM, (Est. 0.4%)

Core CPI 2.4% YoY, (Est. 2.4%)
Core CPI 0.3% MoM, (Est. 0.2%)

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) September 11, 2026

Overall prices rose 3.4% year-over-year, the same as July. Month-over-month, prices increased 0.4%, up from just 0.1% in July.

Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in at 2.4% year-over-year, slightly lower than July’s 2.5%. Core month-over-month rose 0.3%, up from 0.2%.

The data matched economist expectations but showed inflation is still running well above the Fed’s 2% goal.

Fed Rate Hike Odds Jump

Markets reacted quickly. Traders raised the probability of a Fed rate hike at next week’s meeting to 72%, up from roughly 50% the week before.

The Fed has been fighting inflation for over a year. While price increases have slowed since May, the pace remains uncomfortable for policymakers.

Oil prices have added to those concerns. Brent crude climbed above $108 per barrel before pulling back slightly on Friday. Diesel prices hit a record high of $6 per gallon.

Higher energy costs feed into both headline inflation and consumer spending, making the Fed’s job harder.

Rising Treasury yields have also added pressure, pushing borrowing costs higher across mortgages, credit cards, and corporate loans.

Oracle Jumps on Cloud Growth

One bright spot in Friday’s premarket session was Oracle. Shares jumped more than 5% after the company reported strong cloud computing growth in its latest quarterly results.

The move stood out given the broader market pressure from the inflation data and rising rate expectations.

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