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Winklevoss Remains Optimistic While Gemini Faces Intensifying Headwinds

TL;DR:

• Winklevoss Capital reduced its Bitcoin exposure from around 23,000 BTC in February 2025 to less than 11,000 BTC in February 2026.
• Gemini projects operating expenses of between $520 and $530 million for 2025, nearly double the previous year, with net revenues of between $165 and $175 million.
• The exchange cut a quarter of its workforce, exited the UK, the EU and Australia, and lost three key executives in less than two weeks.

Tyler Winklevoss, co-founder of Gemini, said he feels “optimistic” about what he described as a peak of pessimism in the crypto market. However, the available data paints a considerably grimmer picture: sustained Bitcoin sales from his investment firm, a deep restructuring at the exchange he runs alongside his brother Cameron Winklevoss, and a sharp drop in market share.

According to onchain records analyzed by Arkham, the Winklevoss Capital wallet reduced its Bitcoin holdings from approximately 23,000 BTC in February 2025 to less than 11,000 BTC in February 2026. The divestment must be framed within an adverse market: spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States have accumulated five consecutive weeks of capital outflows, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at extreme fear levels, and Google searches for “Bitcoin going to zero” reached their highest point since 2022.

Gemini Cornered by Its Own Numbers

Gemini’s most recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), registered on Tuesday, projects net revenues of between $165 and $175 million for 2025, up from $141 million in 2024. Operating expenses, however, would climb to between $520 and $530 million, nearly double the $308 million of the previous year. The number of monthly active users stands at around 600,000, up 17% from the previous year, although its spot market share fell from 0.6% in June 2025 to 0.1% in January 2026, according to Bloomberg. The company’s valuation dropped from nearly $4 billion to less than $700 million since its public listing.

Earlier this month, the company announced the layoff of up to a quarter of its staff and the withdrawal from operations in the United Kingdom, the European Union and Australia to concentrate more resources in the United States and Singapore. Less than two weeks later, Gemini parted ways with its chief operating officer, chief financial officer and chief legal officer. Cameron Winklevoss absorbed part of the outgoing COO’s responsibilities, while interim executives took on the other positions.

The Winklevosses Move Into Prediction Markets

Bloomberg reported that the company is now targeting a prediction markets platform regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), in addition to custody services and credit cards.