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Glassnode Says Repeat On-Chain Pattern Could Hit XRP Again Like in 2022

TL;DR:

• XRP’s SOPR indicator has fallen below 1.00, confirming that most transactions are being executed at a loss.
• The drop from a peak of 1.16 in July 2025 to the current 0.96 reflects a massive investor capitulation.
• Analysts warn that this behavior mimics the stagnation phase suffered between late 2021 and mid-2022.

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A troubling XRP on-chain pattern has been revealed, placing the digital asset market at a critical juncture. Recent data from Glassnode shows that XRP’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has descended below the 1.00 threshold for the first time in years.

XRP lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling.
• SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 (Jul ’25) to 0.96 (now)
• Holders are realizing significant losses
• On-chain profitability flipped negative
This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR… https://t.co/FejyV1CiuU pic.twitter.com/MYo27V6hTf

— glassnode (@glassnode) February 9, 2026

This means that a majority of holders are moving their funds at a lower price than they originally purchased. Consequently, the ecosystem has entered a “net loss realization” phase—a capitulation event not seen with this intensity since the 2022 bearish cycle.

As a direct result, panic sentiment has returned to the community, reflected in a price drop from $3 in 2025 to levels below $1.50. Similarly, the breach of the aggregate holder cost basis acted as a psychological trigger, accelerating investor exits.

Stagnation Risks and Parallels with the 2022 Cycle

The current situation bears a striking resemblance to the period from September 2021 to May 2022. Back then, the XRP on-chain pattern remained trapped in a tedious sideways range for months before achieving a solid base formation for any recovery attempt.

Unless the SOPR ratio quickly reclaims the 1.00 level, XRP is likely to remain in a sub-cost zone that forces out “weak hands.” Therefore, analysts suggest that this purging process is necessary to reset the market, even if it implies a prolonged lack of bullish volatility.

In summary, capitulation is no longer just a market theory; it is a measurable reality visible directly on the blockchain. The coming months will be decisive in determining whether this XRP on-chain pattern results in healthy accumulation or a deeper, more lasting downtrend.

 

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