Today, Bitcoin is trading above the psychological threshold of $90,000 – a modest consolation for the bulls after BTC/USD fell by around 25% between 1 and 21 November.
In our previous post on 18 November, we discussed why Bitcoin had been declining, highlighting the high leverage across the crypto market. The events of 21 November reinforced this point: within just four hours, according to Coinglass, crypto exchanges saw $1 billion worth of positions liquidated (mostly longs), a classic sign of panic. The CMC Fear and Greed Index dropped to 10, signalling extreme fear and marking the lowest reading ever recorded.
Does the rebound from the 21 November low offer reassurance that the worst is behind us? The chart gives strong reasons to doubt it.
Following the abnormal surge in early October, Bitcoin formed a descending channel (left side of the chart). A major battle unfolded in mid-month near the $95k level (shown by an arrow) – bulls attempted to lift BTC/USD from the channel’s lower boundary but failed, forcing the channel to be extended downward on the right side of the chart.
Yesterday’s rise (possibly driven by cascading long liquidations and buyers finding prices near $80k too tempting) pushed Bitcoin back into a resistance zone (highlighted by an oval). This zone is defined by:
→ the upper boundary of the widened channel;
→ the $95k level, where bears previously asserted dominance;
→ the upper boundary of the downward trajectory (in purple), which has shaped BTC/USD movements since late October.
Only if bulls manage to break above this zone – a highly challenging task – will it confirm the seriousness of their intentions.
