Today, the focus for FX traders is on the Federal Reserve: at 21:00 GMT+3, the FOMC will announce its interest rate decision (rates are expected to remain unchanged), followed by a press conference with Fed Chair Jerome Powell half an hour later.
In addition:
→ the Bank of Canada will announce its rate decision today;
→ similar events are scheduled tomorrow for the Bank of Japan, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England.
As the DXY chart shows, the index is currently trading near the median of an upward channel that has remained in place since early February — a zone where supply and demand typically balance each other. However, incoming central bank announcements are likely to disrupt this equilibrium.
On the morning of 13 March, when analysing the DXY chart, we:
→ noted that the market appeared overbought, with price trading above the upper boundary of the channel;
→ suggested that a pullback could develop.
Indeed, subsequent price action showed signs of bearish pressure:
→ the formation of a “head and shoulders” (H&S) reversal pattern;
→ a bull trap above the psychological 100-point level.
It is reasonable to assume that the FX market is currently awaiting a crucial wave of fundamental information from central banks, which is particularly significant given ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Traders should be prepared for increased volatility in the near term — the dollar index may move towards one of the channel boundaries depending on how the market reacts to upcoming news.
