Today’s Bitcoin price forecast makes for uneasy reading as BTC USD cratered to an intraday low of $75,100 today, after two catalysts hit simultaneously: the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.5–3.75%, and President Trump publicly rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
That combination, hawkish Fed policy meeting an active geopolitical flashpoint, sent BTC sliding through a technical floor that analysts had been watching closely for weeks.
Strait of Trump.
I'm done
pic.twitter.com/RnhdaJrT5w
— Ted (@TedPillows) April 30, 2026
The drop briefly pushed Bitcoin USD below its 20-day simple moving average of $75,664, a level that serves as a short-term speed limit for the market; break it convincingly, and sellers gain confidence.
BTC recovered to around $75,700 by the time of publication, but the question now is whether this is a typical shakeout of weak hands or the beginning of something more substantial. The rest of this article breaks down exactly what the charts, on-chain data, and macro backdrop are telling us.
DISCOVER: How the Powell FOMC Decision Is Impacting Bitcoin Price Right Now
Market analyst Ted Pillows identified the $79,000–$80,000 range as the critical resistance zone BTC must reclaim to avoid a deeper leg down, warning that failure to breach that band could push prices back toward $74,000. That downside target isn’t arbitrary; it sits just below the April monthly low of $74,500, and a confirmed break would put $70,000 psychological support in play.
Glassnode’s on-chain research team described Bitcoin as “trapped below market mean,” with the True Market Mean – the average price weighted by when coins last moved – sitting at $79,000. Being below your own market mean is a bit like a shop running below its break-even point: technically still open, but structurally fragile.
Glassnode also flagged that institutional capital has established a meaningful accumulation zone between $65,000 and $70,000, anchored by consistent inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and expanding CME open interest.
Hyblock CEO Shubh Varma offered a calmer read, characterizing the Wednesday drop as “the usual sell-the-news reaction after the FOMC” and noting that Bitcoin retraced to pre-announcement levels within hours. He pointed to the global bid-ask ratio surging to 0.3 – one of its most elevated readings – as evidence that genuine buying interest is lurking underneath the headline volatility. Crypto volatility around Fed announcements is well-documented, and this episode follows the pattern.
$BTC macro view
Here's the picture now that Q1 has come and gone. The plethora of bullish confluences didn't give the strong reaction I was expecting because we have entered a bear market on Bitcoin. It's pretty simple if you understand layers of market structure. When we… pic.twitter.com/YCW1vg3BYU
— LavaXBT (@lava_xbt) April 30, 2026
The three scenarios worth holding in your head right now:
For context on the direct impact the Iran-Hormuz situation has had on Bitcoin price action, the geopolitical risk premium baked into BTC right now is real and measurable. The BTC support levels between $73,000 and $75,000 have been tested twice recently without confirming a double bottom, that’s a pattern worth watching at the monthly close.
EXPLORE: Best Crypto Presales With Staking Rewards
Follow 99Bitcoins on X, YouTube, and Telegram for more crypto news and analysis.
The post Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC USD Dips Under $76k – Is the ‘Fed-Iran’ Double Whammy a Buying Opportunity? appeared first on 99Bitcoins.
