Traders across derivatives exchanges have pulled more than $2 billion from open interest in less than a week, positioning defensively as policymakers prepare to announce their rate decision.
Despite that caution, spot flows tell a different story. Data tracked by CryptoQuant revealed nine straight days of Bitcoin leaving Binance wallets, a sign that larger holders may be quietly building positions. That accumulation has coincided with a price recovery from lows near $108,000 to over $115,000.
Adding to the intrigue, blockchain analysts flagged a decade-old wallet that suddenly came back to life. The address, which first acquired 1,000 BTC in 2012 for less than $1 million, moved its entire holdings this week — coins now worth roughly $116 million. For more than 12 years the stash had remained untouched, making its sudden transfer a dramatic reminder of Bitcoin’s long history of dormant wealth.
The whale’s reappearance comes as expectations for monetary easing reach a peak. CME’s FedWatch tool shows near-unanimous bets on a quarter-point cut, up sharply from just a month ago. Banks are already debating how deep the cutting cycle will go, with Goldman Sachs forecasting three reductions this year and Bank of America projecting at least two.
For traders, the clash of signals is hard to ignore: short positioning dominates at 57% across exchanges, while long accounts remain a minority at 42%, according to CoinAnk. Yet institutional accumulation and whale activity point in the opposite direction.
With Bitcoin caught between bearish derivatives sentiment and bullish spot flows, the timing of the Fed’s move could prove decisive. Whether the reawakened whale was front-running volatility or simply cashing out after a decade of patience, the market now faces a test of conviction as monetary policy shifts and old money resurfaces.
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