Wedson argues that Bitcoin continues to follow its four-year cycle, a pattern that has historically governed its major peaks and corrections. He pointed to his team’s Recurrence Fractal Cycle model, which has tracked Bitcoin’s behavior with high accuracy since 2015. “Many are claiming the cycle is broken because of global liquidity shifts,” Wedson said, “but the data still points to a continuation rather than a collapse.”
Backing his argument, Wedson referenced the Max Intersect SMA Model, a metric his team developed to identify Bitcoin’s cycle tops. The model, he noted, has successfully predicted every all-time high since Bitcoin’s early trading history. “It’s remarkable how closely it has aligned with previous peaks. The real question is whether it will capture this one too,” he added.
Wedson compared the current market environment to 2021, when a wave of deleveraging briefly rattled prices before a swift rebound carried Bitcoin to record highs. He believes the same dynamic could be unfolding again – that large liquidations may simply reset the market rather than end it.
On-chain data, Wedson said, continues to suggest resilience. Indicators such as mining fees, transaction activity, and address growth remain at historically low but stable levels, typically seen near major accumulation phases. He also highlighted that the total crypto market capitalization remains smaller than Nvidia’s valuation, underscoring the sector’s room for expansion.
“The market doesn’t end with one major liquidation,” Wedson concluded. “Historically, those moments mark bottoms, not tops. With Bitcoin dominance rising again, this cycle may still have weeks – or even months – left before peaking.”
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