XRP is currently trading at $2.8509, showing strength as it rides the 20-week EMA around $2.76. The token has been consolidating since its March spike to $3.66, but the longer-term structure remains favorable.
Higher time-frame EMAs (50/100/200) continue to rise and align positively, supporting an ongoing bullish bias. Support between $2.75 and $2.79, which includes the 20-week EMA and the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, is the first zone buyers need to protect.
If lost, attention would shift toward $2.58, where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement lies. A deeper pullback to $2.30 would retest the 0.786 Fib and 50-EMA, serving as the final stronghold for bulls.
On the resistance side, XRP faces a ceiling at $2.92–$2.95, which aligns with the 0.382 retracement. Clearing that level would pave the way toward $3.24–$3.25, considered the gateway to trend resumption. A move past $3.66, the previous swing high, could confirm the next leg higher.
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Momentum readings highlight the current equilibrium. The weekly RSI is sitting in the mid-50s, suggesting neutral-to-bullish conditions, while the MACD lines remain compressed near the zero line.
This setup indicates recovering strength, but without a confirmed breakout yet. A weekly RSI push above 60 or a bullish MACD cross above zero would signal momentum expansion.
Fibonacci retracement zones reinforce this balance, with the price stuck between $2.79 and $2.93. These levels act as a midpoint within the consolidation, often dictating the next multi-week move.
A breakout above $2.95 could open the path toward $3.25, and beyond that, the chart points to a potential rally toward $4.1, based on the measured range height from summer trading.
Beyond the near-term outlook, longer historical cycles point to ambitious upside potential. Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO highlighted how past behavior around the 21 EMA triggered massive rallies.
In 2017, XRP gained 1,610% after retesting the EMA. During 2021, despite the SEC lawsuit acting as a setback, the token managed a 414% surge after reclaiming the same level.
With the most recent retest of the 21 EMA in June 2025, projections suggest possible long-term targets at $9.6 and even $33 if history repeats.
While such gains are far from guaranteed, the pattern underscores how XRP has historically delivered explosive moves once momentum aligned.
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