XRP trades near $1.11 on July 11, up 0.49% intraday but below all three of its major moving averages, as the first weekly ETF outflow since 1st of May removes the steadiest source of demand from a market already running on shrinking leverage.
Key Takeaways
US spot XRP ETFs recorded a net outflow of $7.18 million in the week ending July 10, according to SoSoValue data, ending a nine-week streak that had delivered roughly $196 million in cumulative inflows since early May. The reversal lands on a derivatives market that has been contracting for a month and a network posting some of its quietest activity readings of the year.
The most unusual data of the past week came from Binance spot activity. Analyst CryptoOnchain wrote on CryptoQuant that the exchange recorded an exceptional burst of XRP movement between July 4 and July 8, peaking at 64.9 million XRP of inflows against 49.2 million of outflows on July 7. In the analyst’s reading, flows of that magnitude point to aggressive capital repositioning rather than fresh directional conviction, and the derivatives data supports the more cautious interpretation.
Binance open interest had already declined from above $500 million in mid-June to $431 million by July 4 before slipping to $399 million by July 10, a drawdown of roughly 20% in under a month. Long liquidations jumped 94% week-over-week, running 172% above their three-month average, while short liquidations contracted 53%. The pain in this market has been concentrated almost entirely on the long side.
Funding rates supply the sharpest tension in the dataset. After briefly turning negative in late June, Binance funding rebounded 266% week-over-week to 0.007 per the same analysis. Rising funding against falling open interest and elevated long liquidations implies that the longs still entering are paying growing premiums inside a shrinking market, a structure CryptoOnchain notes has historically been vulnerable to funding-rate resets.
On-chain data removes the possibility that silent accumulation is offsetting the derivatives picture. Santiment wrote on X that the XRP Ledger just recorded 25,350 active wallets, the second-lowest daily reading of 2026, while new wallet creation fell to 2,130, the weakest since November 2024. In Santiment’s assessment, traders appear to be “waiting for a real catalyst instead of chasing another small bounce” after the dip-buying interest of late June faded.
The finer-grained metrics soften the picture slightly without changing it. Transaction counts have risen roughly 3-4% over both the past week and month, though they remain 21% below their three-month average, and the NVT ratio has eased, which may indicate network utilization is stabilizing rather than deteriorating further. Active addresses still sit 11% below their three-month baseline. A stabilizing floor is not the same as returning demand, and neither dataset shows the latter.
XRP has spent July carving out a base between roughly $1.01 and $1.05, the zone that halted both the early-June and early-July selloffs, and the bounce from that area stalled almost exactly where the trend said it should: the July 5-6 push toward $1.17 was rejected at the descending 50-day SMA, now at $1.1648. Price at $1.11 sits between those two markers, with the 100-day at $1.2804 and the 200-day at $1.4546 stacked overhead in full bearish alignment.
That alignment frames the recovery attempt honestly. Every moving average that matters is above the price and falling, which means rallies keep meeting supply at progressively lower levels. The July rejection at the 50-day was the third failed recovery attempt since May, and each has topped out below the previous one.
The bullish path requires specific things to happen in sequence. A daily close above the 50-day SMA near $1.16, followed by a successful retest, would mark the first structural break in the downtrend since the spring. ETF flows returning to positive territory in the July 17 weekly print would matter nearly as much, since the nine-week inflow streak was the one demand source that persisted through the entire decline. Santiment points to RLUSD growth, tokenized asset activity, and institutional payment volume as the catalysts that could bring users back on-chain if momentum improves.
The bearish conditions are equally concrete. A second consecutive week of ETF outflows would confirm the July 10 print as a trend change rather than noise. Below price, a daily close under the $1.05 support shelf would expose the $1.01 July low, and losing that level would put XRP below $1 for the first time since November 2024. The funding structure adds the wildcard: if the premium longs are paying resets sharply while open interest keeps draining, the move could be fast rather than gradual, as the 94% weekly jump in long liquidations already demonstrated at smaller scale.
