Bitcoin is trading near $78,100, but one closely watched market analyst says the bear-market bottom is still not confirmed. Crypto Birb pushed back against the growing view that BTC already bottomed near $60,000, arguing that the broader trend still looks incomplete.
“Bear market bottom is NOT in,” Crypto Birb wrote on X, adding that traders should wait for stronger evidence before calling a full reversal. His main trigger is the 200-day trend. Until Bitcoin breaks back above that line, he sees the market as closer to a mid-cycle winter phase than a confirmed recovery.
The view lands at a tense point for BTC. Price has recovered sharply from the $60,000 area, but it is still fighting the same upper range that has capped recent attempts near $78,000 to $80,000. That zone remains critical because a failure there would keep the recovery vulnerable to another downside reset.
Birb’s first argument is technical. The 200-day moving average remains a major trend filter for Bitcoin, and he argues that a downward 200-day structure still defines the current environment as bearish. A brief rally below that trend may show relief, but it does not confirm a macro reversal.
“If we break SMA200 then we can talk reversal,” he wrote, comparing the current structure to June 2022. That comparison matters because the 2022 bear market also included sharp rebounds that looked convincing before the final bottom was in.
Recent Bitcoin price action near the $80,000 resistance band shows why traders are split. Bulls can point to the reclaimed 100-day moving average and the breakout from the descending channel. Bears can point to the still-unreclaimed 200-day trend and the repeated rejection risk above current levels.
Birb also argues that true cycle bottoms usually form through apathy, despair, and disinterest rather than aggressive debates about whether the worst is already over. In his view, the current market still has too many traders declaring victory too early.
That stands directly against the recent shallow-bottom thesis, where several analysts have argued that Bitcoin never had the euphoric blow-off top needed for an 80% crash. That view has gained momentum as Bitcoin’s $60K bottom call spreads through market commentary.
The disagreement now comes down to confirmation. Bulls need BTC to clear the 200-day trend and turn $80,000 into support. Bears need only one more failed breakout to keep the June 2022 comparison alive.
Bitcoin’s recovery has improved the chart, but it has not ended the argument. A clean move through the 200-day trend would force bears to reassess. Another rejection below that line would keep the market trapped between a powerful relief rally and an unfinished bear-market structure.
The post Popular Trader Says Bitcoin Bear-Market Bottom Is Not Fully In appeared first on Crypto Adventure.
