Bitcoin is trading near $78,200 as the first weekend of May continues, keeping last night’s breakout setup alive. The latest CoinGecko data shows BTC closed May 2 around $78,655 after holding above the $75,000 breakout area and staying within reach of the $80,000 supply zone.
The key change is that Bitcoin has reclaimed the 100-day moving average and broken out of the descending channel that contained the earlier bearish trend. That gives bulls a cleaner structure than they had during the April chop, but the market still needs a stronger daily close above $80,000 before the move becomes more convincing.
That level has capped BTC on several attempts since February. A breakout above it would shift attention toward the $85,000 to $90,000 region, where the 200-day moving average and deeper overhead supply could slow momentum again. If BTC fails to clear $80,000, the $75,000 area becomes the first zone buyers need to defend.
The 4-hour structure remains constructive. Bitcoin broke above $75,000, pulled back into that area, and then pushed back toward the upper-$70,000 range. That kind of breakout and retest pattern usually gives traders more confidence than a straight vertical move because support has already been tested once.
Momentum has also improved. The RSI has been holding in bullish territory without reaching the kind of extreme level that would make the setup look exhausted. That leaves room for another push, but the risk is still concentrated near $80,000. If price rejects there again, the market may treat the latest move as another failed attempt inside a wider range.
The setup connects with the broader Bitcoin range debate, where traders have been watching whether BTC can move beyond the $78,000 to $80,000 resistance band without losing support underneath.
The on-chain backdrop explains why the next zone may be difficult. The supplied setup placed Bitcoin’s circulating supply in profit at 64.2%, leaving a large share of holders still underwater from purchases made at higher prices. Glassnode’s percent supply in profit metric tracks how much BTC last moved below the current market price, making it useful for judging where holders may become potential sellers.
The problem is the $80,000 to $90,000 zone. A large amount of supply was acquired during the late-2025 distribution range, so every push higher brings more holders closer to breakeven. That can create overhead selling as traders who sat through losses use the rebound to exit.
The bullish version is that each successful push through supply reduces the pool of trapped sellers. If Bitcoin clears $80,000 and keeps converting underwater positions into profitable ones without losing momentum, the supply-in-profit reading could move toward the 75% to 80% range that has historically marked a healthier recovery phase.
BTC has done enough to keep the breakout trade alive, but not enough to remove the wall ahead. The chart now has a clean dividing line: sustained trade above $80,000 would make $85,000 and $90,000 realistic upside targets, while a break back below $75,000 would weaken the retest and put the recovery back under pressure.
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