Crypto Bull Run — The Final Act

Crypto Bull Run — The Final Act

The parabola is here … what to expect over the next 6 months.

This has been a very unique bull run, with Bitcoin having been the clear leader and only a select few altcoins participating in any meaningful way.

Veterans, newbies and everyone in between have been thrown for a loop. ICO’s dead, airdrops likewise DOA, gameFi ship sank with only a few survivors, NFT’s only recently showing any signs of life.

Sentiment in the markets is a bipolar mess, getting euphoric and hopeful with every pump, and terrified and capitulating on every dump.

The question on everyone’s mind is: “what comes next?” Is it a parabola? Have we topped already? What does the last phase of this bull market look like?

The Next 6 Months:

Historical timing would indicate a top for this bull run in late October 2025. M2 money supply 82 day lag, which has been an excellent movement indicator for Bitcoin, also shows a likely top in later October.

The chart below, posted by ColinTalksCrypto on X, shows the uncanny correlation between M2 money supply and Bitcoin price performance.

The chart below is one I put together back in 2022, and uses the historical time from halving and bear market bottom to project the likely bull market peak. As you can see, there are a confluence of indicators pointing to an October cycle top for Bitcoin.

So what comes next?

Despite the confluence of indicators corroborating the same mid to late October cycle top, the unique nature of the cycle to date warrants some modifications to this prediction. Why?

• Retail is not here, and will likely come for nothing more than a short all-inclusive casino vacation at the pico top … exit liquidity.
• Institutions are more gradual and slow moving, as evidenced by the gradual rise in Bitcoin prices throughout this cycle. Much fewer big pumps than previous cycles.
• Drawbacks have been likewise more moderate, given the slow reaction speed of institutional capital.
• Treasury companies will extend the cycle, as they lock BTC and ETH (and to an extent some altcoins) and are slow to react as the bear kicks in. When they do, it will be the Luna moment of this cycle and likely cause a cascade drop in prices as the lettuce handed boards panic/forced sell. In the meanwhile, they will reduce pullbacks and cause a gradual grind higher.
• The significantly higher crypto market cap will make large pumps more difficult. We will still have some big green candles, but the majority of price increase will come from consecutive gradual price increases.
• ETF’s amplify movement in both directions, which will offset the larger amounts of capital required to make the big moves. TLDR: We will still have the same 65–70% drawdown in the bear market.
• Rates are about to drop, M2 money may resume its increase, but there are structural issues in the economy mid to long term.

FINE, SO what does it mean champ?!

• Extended Cycle: I believe Bitcoin tops in late November, with an outside chance we extend into Dec/Jan.
• Altcoins will the lag the above by a few weeks.
• BTC Price target $175-$185K
• ETH Price Target $7–9K
• Sentiment is the best indicator … look for the usual bull posting, PnL screenshots, outlandish price predictions and and influencoor “I told you so” posts … then counter trade it hard.
• We are likely in the midst of a small pullback, solid support at $111K BTC and $4K ETH.
• Altcoins will mostly disappoint, with blue chips and select small caps way outperforming.

Conclusion:

This may upset some folks, but now is not the time to buy. That was they last couple years. That’s not to say there aren’t still some solid buys, but the risk rewards is not what it once was.

My bags are packed, hopefully yours are too, and now is the time to build an exit strategy and stick to it. Having diamond hands it tough, buying when there’s blood in the streets is tough … but taking profits is downright HARD. FOMO and greed will whisper sweet nothings in your ear, remind you about the gains you are missing, tell you to take just one more gamble.

Make a plan and stick to it, put those profits away and accept you won’t hit the top, and that is just fine. There will be very good opportunities to make more on the way down (article in the coming weeks), and once we are in the depths of the bear.

Stay contrarian my friends, life changing gains still await.

Good luck out there, and see you on the next one!

Sovereign Crypto (aka RickyBobby)

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Crypto Bull Run — The Final Act was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.