In recent days, the cryptocurrency market has experienced extreme volatility:
A→B: Bitcoin surged sharply, partly driven by concerns around the US government shutdown, forming a historic peak above $125k.
B→C: Panic selling followed, triggered by Trump’s statements on the possible introduction of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.
Price swings for both moves exceeded 15%. Following this “pump and dump,” crypto volatility appears to be easing, with BTC/USD consolidating between $110k and $115k.
What could happen next?
Demand-side perspective:
→ BTC/USD is maintaining a long-term upward trend, highlighted by the blue channel.
→ The lower boundary (indicated by the arrow) provides solid support.
Supply-side perspective:
→ Examining price behaviour, such as the reversal from peak B, allows the construction of a descending channel (shown in red).
→ October’s record high may act as a bull trap if the August peak fails to break convincingly.
The long-term trend is supported by inflows into crypto-related ETFs, favouring the bulls. However, the A→B→C sequence reflects the characteristics of a Bearish Engulfing pattern.
As Bitcoin oscillates between the red median and the lower blue boundary, the key question remains: what will be the next move?
Assuming:
→ the market is still under the emotional impact of last Friday’s reactive sell-off;
→ the initiative may lie with the sellers.
If rebounds from the lower blue line prove weak, a bearish break could occur, potentially pushing BTC/USD down to the lower red boundary around the psychological $100k mark.
