Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) Stock Surges 7% as Q3 Forecast Beats Expectations

Key Highlights

• Second quarter earnings per share registered at -$0.20, falling short of analyst projections by a single cent; quarterly revenue reached $5.2B, aligning with forecasts
• Shares of CLF climbed approximately 7% during pre-market hours following the earnings announcement
• The company’s adjusted EBITDA saw a threefold increase from the previous quarter, reaching $286 million in Q2
• Third quarter adjusted EBITDA projection of roughly $575 million represents over twice the Q2 figure and substantially exceeds Street expectations
• Annual steel shipment projections remain steady at 16.5–17.0 million net tons

Shares of Cleveland-Cliffs settled at $9.45 ahead of the earnings announcement, reflecting a 3.18% decline over the preceding three-month period and a 13.38% decrease year-over-year. However, the latest quarterly results triggered a 6.88% surge in pre-market activity.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc., CLF

The steelmaker reported an adjusted per-share loss of $0.20 for the second quarter, marginally below the consensus forecast of -$0.19. Quarterly revenue totaled $5.2 billion, meeting Wall Street projections and representing a 9% increase compared to the $4.8 billion recorded in Q2 2025.

While the company technically missed on earnings, the shortfall was negligible. The meaningful developments lie in the operational improvements and forward-looking projections.

The company’s adjusted EBITDA totaled $286 million during the quarter, representing a significant jump from the $95 million posted in the first quarter. Chief Executive Lourenco Goncalves highlighted that these gains materialized despite facing prolonged maintenance shutdowns throughout April and May.

“The second quarter marked another step in returning to the earnings power this company is capable of,” Goncalves said.

The company shipped 4.0 million net tons of steel products during the second quarter. Automotive sector customers accounted for 29% of direct shipments. Net selling prices averaged $1,124 per ton, climbing from $1,048 in the prior quarter.

Strong Third Quarter Forecast Fuels Investor Optimism

The primary catalyst behind the stock’s rally was the company’s third quarter outlook. Cleveland-Cliffs projected adjusted EBITDA of approximately $575 million for Q3 — representing more than a doubling from the second quarter performance and surpassing analyst consensus estimates.

Goncalves emphasized that the U.S. market is demonstrating strengthening demand patterns, reduced import competition, and lengthening order lead times.

Management reaffirmed its full-year steel shipment outlook, maintaining the guidance range of 16.5 to 17.0 million net tons.

As of June 30, 2026, Cleveland-Cliffs maintained liquidity of $3.1 billion. Management anticipates achieving its leverage objective of below 2.5x debt-to-EBITDA within the next twelve months.

Analyst Sentiment Turned Bearish Before Results

During the 90-day period preceding the earnings release, Cleveland-Cliffs experienced five downward EPS revisions with no upward adjustments. InvestingPro assigns the company’s financial condition a “fair performance” rating.

The pre-market advance to $10.26, representing an increase of $0.81 or 8.60%, demonstrates that market participants are prioritizing the robust third quarter forecast over the modest second quarter earnings disappointment.

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