The Fed said, “Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal,” adding that supply shocks, including higher energy costs, continue to push prices higher.
The statement also said economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace and unemployment has changed little despite uncertainty partly linked to the Middle East conflict, supporting the Fed’s cautious stance.
The hold was far from unanimous. The FOMC approved it by a 9-3 vote, with Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan all preferring a quarter-point rate increase. The unusually hawkish split shows that pressure for tighter policy is building inside the central bank, making Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments particularly important for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market.
For crypto, the hold avoided an immediate tightening shock, but the three votes for a hike limit any dovish interpretation and keep near-term liquidity expectations cautious.
With futures markets assigning over 60% probability to a hold before the announcement, much of the decision had already been priced in. Bitcoin consequently showed a controlled reaction around the announcement and was trading near $64,400 after the release.
BTC is also back above and holding its important 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, while the 50-day simple moving average sits directly below the same area. Together, the two levels form a concentrated support zone that buyers need to defend to preserve the current structure.
Altcoins also moved higher in the hour around the release. Ethereum gained 1.5%, XRP 1.5%, Solana 0.7% and BNB 0.3%.
The rate announcement may therefore prove less important than the guidance that follows it. Kevin Warsh’s remarks could move Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, particularly if he treats the energy-driven inflation shock as persistent or supports the dissenters’ case for another rate increase.
Markets are also waiting for Japan’s rate decision, which could affect global liquidity and risk appetite. A surprise from either central bank would leave Bitcoin’s current support zone facing a more meaningful test.
In the first 30 minutes after the Fed’s announcement, Bitcoin initially moved lower, falling to $63,800.
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