This morning, the EUR/USD rate moved above 1.1680 during early trading — its highest level since mid-October. The main driver behind the rise is traders’ assessment of the diverging policies of central banks. Based on the fundamental outlook ahead of the December meetings:
→ The market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December under pressure from the Trump administration, making the dollar appear less profitable and less attractive.
→ The ECB, by contrast, has adopted a wait-and-see stance. Inflation in the Eurozone is close to target, and there seems to be no intention to cut rates aggressively for now.
In November, the pair formed a broad balance zone:
→ The 1.1500 level acted as support — the price dipped below it twice, but failed to hold beneath this psychological mark.
→ A downward sloping trendline (shown in red) served as resistance.
At the start of December, we see that price growth within the blue ascending channel has led to a bullish breakout above the red resistance line.
However, the chart suggests that the rally may now be losing momentum, because:
→ As the arrow indicates, this morning’s attempt to surpass yesterday’s high may result in a candle with a long upper wick.
→ RSI conditions point to a possible bearish divergence between price highs A and B.
It is possible that the EUR/USD rise to a 1.5-month high could attract sellers — therefore, forex traders should not rule out a pullback towards the lower boundary of the blue channel. A retest from above of the red line is also possible.
