BioNTech stock jumped 22% on Wednesday to $113.12, posting its largest single-day gain since April 2023. The move came after Moderna and Merck announced positive Phase 3 results for their personalized cancer vaccine.
The trial, called INTerpath-001, showed that intismeran autogene combined with Merck’s Keytruda was more effective at preventing melanoma recurrence than Keytruda alone. The news sent Moderna stock nearly tripling, while Merck added over 12%.
BioNTech was not alone in riding the wave. Novavax jumped 11%, as the broader vaccine sector caught a bid on the back of the data.
But analysts at Leerink Partners moved quickly to cool the enthusiasm around BNTX specifically. Analyst Daina Graybosch said the rally is likely “to fade as investors absorb the poor read-through.”
Her view is straightforward: the trial win belongs to Moderna and Merck, not BioNTech. While BioNTech has its own mRNA cancer vaccine program, it has not kept pace with its rivals.
BioNTech’s cancer vaccine efforts are built around its iNeST platform, developed with Roche’s Genentech unit. The program targets solid tumors using personalized, mutation-specific vaccines.
However, the pipeline has hit some speed bumps. In late 2025, BioNTech paused development of its BNT111 candidate in advanced refractory melanoma, after testing it alongside Regeneron’s Libtayo in a Phase 2 study.
Leerink now believes BioNTech’s chances of becoming a leader in cancer vaccines have faded to the point where that potential is no longer reflected in the stock price.
Goldman Sachs analyst Asad Haider recently pointed to BioNTech’s pumitamig as a brighter spot, calling its non-small cell lung cancer data “encouraging,” though a rival drug is further along in development.
Beyond the pipeline, BioNTech faces a leadership change. Its husband-and-wife co-founders are set to leave by year-end to start a new company. BioNTech has agreed to license its mRNA technology to the new venture in return for a minority stake, milestone payments, and royalties.
On the financial side, the picture remains tough. Second-quarter earnings showed the company is still heavily dependent on Covid vaccine revenue, which continues to fall. Full-year revenue guidance came in below analyst expectations.
Pfizer, its Covid vaccine partner, has navigated the post-pandemic transition more steadily by comparison.
Analysts appear to be shifting attention away from BioNTech’s cancer vaccine program and toward other parts of its oncology portfolio.
BioNTech’s full-year revenue guidance fell short of analyst expectations following its most recent earnings report.
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