Bitcoin has dropped nearly 50% from its October 2026 record high of approximately $126,080, pulling the price into the low-$60,000 range. The decline has rattled market sentiment and reopened the debate over where this cycle ends.
Research from VanEck suggests the current sell-off is broadly consistent with Bitcoin’s historical four-year halving cycle. After each halving, new BTC supply entering the market is cut in half, and large corrections have followed previous rallies.
VanEck tracks Bitcoin using its GEO framework, which measures Global Liquidity, Ecosystem Leverage, and On-Chain Activity. Two of the three signals are currently neutral, while ecosystem leverage sits in constructive territory.
$BTC has a decent long-side liquidity sitting around $62,000.
After that, most of the liquidity is to the upside.
IMO, a dip below $62,000 followed by a pump above $65,000 could happen for Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/uyEUzseFZS
— Ted (@TedPillows) August 15, 2026
The firm says these readings show early signs a bottom could be developing, and has suggested investors may want to begin scaling into positions rather than waiting for a perfect entry.
Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant adds another layer. Analyst MorenoDV examined adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data and found that long-term Bitcoin holders are carrying deeper unrealized losses than the broader market. This pattern has appeared near previous major Bitcoin cycle bottoms.
However, CryptoQuant is not calling a definitive bottom. Historical cycle lows saw the long-term holder NUPL fall considerably further than current levels, leaving room for another sharp decline before a floor is established.
Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies and portfolio manager of the Amplify Fairlead Tactical Bitcoin ETF, told Coinage she is seeing long-term oversold conditions on two of her preferred indicators. She also noted that long-term momentum has begun ticking higher after previously accelerating to the downside.
“We are seeing those signs of long-term downside exhaustion already,” Stockton said. She added that seeing both an oversold condition and a momentum uptick together was “very intriguing.”
Stockton also noted that implied Bitcoin volatility recently fell to yearly lows, and CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju reported that hedge funds have flipped net long on BTC futures.
Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick called Bitcoin’s bottom at $59,000 in June, writing that “winter is over.” Bitcoin subsequently closed June 30 at $58,566, its lowest close in nearly two years.
Galaxy Research takes a more cautious view, forecasting a Bitcoin bottom between $40,000 and $46,000 in Q4 2026, with a panic-driven worst case near $28,000.
Glassnode data shows 45 Bitcoin metrics in capitulation — the longest such stretch since the FTX collapse. Analysts from Cowen, CryptoQuant, and Peter Brandt are targeting a September to October bottom.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $63,000, down roughly 49% from its all-time high, with the market watching whether long-term holders and institutional demand can absorb continued selling pressure.
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