Ciena stock closed Monday at $355.09, up 5.3% on the day. That put it on pace for its highest close since June 12, 2001 — right in the middle of the dot-com hangover era.
The stock has now risen nearly 450% over the past 12 months. That kind of run turns heads, and not just because of the number.
For anyone who lived through the original Ciena story, this chart looks familiar. The company hit an all-time closing high of $1,046.50 in late 2000, then spent the better part of two decades trading under $100 — and sometimes under $10.
This time, the fuel is AI. Demand for optical networking gear has jumped as hyperscalers race to build out and connect data centers. Ciena makes the equipment that moves data between those facilities at high speed.
On its most recent quarterly earnings call, Ciena said its supply is still running behind demand. That’s a good problem to have — and one that tells you something about where things stand in the cycle.
The numbers are real. In its most recent quarter, Ciena posted EPS of $1.35, beating the $1.17 analyst estimate. Revenue came in at $1.43 billion, up 33.1% year-over-year.
That’s not a valuation story built on air. The revenue growth gives the stock price something to lean on.
Ciena trades at 7.6 times projected sales over the next 12 months. That’s a premium to peers, but nowhere near the 36x multiple the stock carried at the height of the dot-com bubble. Analysts at BofA Securities flagged the relative premium but did not rate it a red flag.
Wall Street is largely on board. Of 21 analysts covering the stock, 14 have a Buy or equivalent rating. Just one firm rates it a Sell. The average price target sits at $320.65, though several recent upgrades have pushed individual targets into the $350–$375 range.
Wolfe Research reiterated an “outperform” rating with a $375 target on March 5. Rosenblatt Securities lifted its target from $305 to $350 with a Buy rating on March 6.
Institutional investors own roughly 91.99% of the stock. Jericho Capital Asset Management boosted its position by 48.5% in Q3, bringing its holding to 1,983,000 units worth approximately $288.9 million. That makes Ciena the firm’s 13th-largest position.
JPMorgan Chase also added to its position in Q2, growing its stake by 7.4% to 5,243,053 units. New York State Common Retirement Fund increased its holding by 38.7% in Q3.
Ciena’s market cap now sits around $47.7 billion, and the stock is trading near its 52-week high.
The most recent data point: Monday’s 5.3% gain puts CIEN at levels not seen in nearly 25 years.
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