Apple’s “Surprise and Shine” event kicks off Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET, and all eyes are on John Ternus as he steps onto the stage for the first time as CEO.
AAPL stock closed at $316.22 on Tuesday, down 1.17%, though it gained 0.04% in after-hours trading. The stock is up 16.68% year to date and 34.93% over the past year.
Ternus took over from Tim Cook on September 1. This event is his first major public moment leading Apple.
The headline product is expected to be Apple’s first foldable iPhone. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman reports the device will follow a passport-like design similar to Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold lineup. The price could exceed $2,000, putting it above Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 8, which starts at $1,899.
Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan expects price increases of $150 to $200 across the Pro line, driven by higher memory and storage costs. Mohan says market reaction will depend on how far prices actually move, Siri AI adoption, and what management says about foldable demand.
BofA maintained its Buy rating and $380 price target, which implies about 19% upside from Tuesday’s close. KeyBanc holds an Underweight rating with a $250 target, warning that broad price increases risk “sticker shock” and weaker unit volumes.
Across 29 analysts, AAPL carries a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $335, roughly 5.4% above current levels, according to Benzinga.
KeyBanc expects total iPhone 18 builds of around 80 million units through early fiscal 2027, down from about 91 million a year ago. The firm expects higher pricing and a richer product mix to partly offset lower volumes.
The base iPhone 18 model is not expected at Wednesday’s event. MacRumors, citing Economic Daily News, reports it could launch early next year alongside the iPhone 18e and second-generation iPhone Air.
Nearly two decades of data from Bluekurtic Market Insights shows AAPL averages a 0.3% decline on iPhone launch days, with a median drop of 0.6%. The stock has closed higher on launch day just a third of the time across 24 events since 2007.
The day after, however, tells a different story. Apple has averaged a 0.5% gain the session following a launch, positive in 15 of 24 releases.
The S&P 500 closed higher the day after an iPhone launch 79.2% of the time, and the Nasdaq 100 did so 75% of the time.
Beyond phones, Apple is expected to announce the Apple Watch Series 12 and Apple Watch Ultra 4, with internal updates and software improvements.
Apple’s iPhone segment brought in $54.25 billion in Q3 revenue, up nearly 22% year over year, accounting for roughly half of the company’s $109.4 billion in total net sales. CFO Kevan Parekh guided for total revenue growth of 9% to 11% in the September quarter.
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