Tesla reports its second quarter 2026 earnings after Wednesday’s closing bell, and for the first time in a while, the car business is not the concern. The stock sat at $378.93 heading into Wednesday, down around 16% year to date.
Wall Street expects revenue of $26.21 to $27.3 billion for the quarter, up roughly 16% from a year ago. Analysts are projecting adjusted EPS of $0.50 to $0.55, compared to $0.40 in Q2 2025. Adjusted EBITDA is forecast at $4 billion, nearly double the $2.3 billion posted a year ago.
The delivery numbers already came in and they were strong. Tesla reported Q2 deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, up 25% year over year and well ahead of Bloomberg consensus estimates of 397,466.
Several things drove that beat. The new Model Y is now fully ramped after last year’s factory changeover hurt output. Tesla has been cutting prices aggressively around the world, and buyers responded. Energy storage deployments also jumped, coming in at 13.5 GWh — more than 50% above Q1’s 8.8 GWh.
The regional picture is mixed. US sales are under pressure, with Cox Automotive estimating a 20% drop after the federal EV tax credit expired. Europe has gone the other way. Greater Europe registrations were up nearly 108% in May, with EU registrations more than doubling. Tesla responded by announcing a production boost at Giga Berlin.
China is also providing support. Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu called Europe “the standout driver” with China offering further backing.
Deepwater Investment’s Gene Munster pointed to the end of what he called “the EV winter that started in March of 2024,” along with higher gas prices and the fading of DOGE-related headwinds, as forces lifting overall demand.
The concern for Wednesday isn’t revenue or deliveries — it’s cash. Wall Street sees Q2 free cash flow falling to around -$3.25 billion. That compares to positive FCF of nearly $5.6 billion in Q2 2025. Capital expenditures are expected to hit $6.7 billion for the quarter.
Tesla is spending on multiple fronts at once: Optimus humanoid robot production, AI data center build-out, and the Cybercab ramp. For the full year 2026, Tesla has guided $25 billion in capital spending, up from less than $10 billion in 2025.
Gross automotive margins, excluding regulatory credits, are expected to come in around 18%, down roughly one percentage point from Q1.
The conference call starts at 5:30 p.m. Eastern. That’s when CEO Elon Musk is expected to speak, and analysts say his comments on AI progress — Robotaxi, Optimus, data centers — will carry more weight with investors than the headline numbers.
Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco put it plainly: “As capex more than doubles and free cash flow turns negative, investors are increasingly focused on evidence that Tesla’s spending is strengthening its physical AI moat.”
One more thing worth noting ahead of the print: Tesla has missed adjusted EPS estimates in five of the last eight quarters.
The post Tesla (TSLA) Stock Faces Its Biggest Earnings Question: Is the AI Bet Paying Off? appeared first on CoinCentral.
