Jobs Report Day: Stocks Hold Steady as Fed Rate Decision Hangs in the Balance

TLDR

• US stock futures were little changed Friday morning ahead of the August jobs report
• Fed governor Chris Waller signaled he may hold rates steady, cutting odds of a September hike
• Markets now price roughly a 50-50 chance of the Fed raising rates in September
• Economists expect 55,000 to 65,000 jobs added in August, recovering from July’s weak reading
• Lululemon shares dropped 18% in premarket after cutting revenue and profit guidance

What’s Moving Markets This Morning

US stock futures were mostly flat on Friday morning as traders waited for the government’s August jobs report, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

Nasdaq 100 futures rose around 0.5%. S&P 500 futures edged slightly higher. Dow Jones futures slipped about 37 to 47 points, or around 0.1%.

The moves came after a strong Thursday session. All three major indexes closed in the green, with the Nasdaq leading gains after a Federal Reserve official signaled he was open to keeping rates unchanged.

Fed governor Christopher Waller said he was leaning toward holding interest rates steady. That comment pushed traders to pull back their bets on a September rate hike.

Markets now see roughly a 50-50 chance the Fed will raise rates next month, according to CME Group data.

Bond yields also eased Friday morning. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note slid 1 basis point to 4.76%, giving stocks some added support.

Jobs Report in Focus

Economists expect the US added between 55,000 and 65,000 jobs in August. That would be a rebound from an unexpected drop in job growth in July.

🚨ALERT: Today’s NFP jobs report is one of the BIGGEST market catalysts of September.

Markets expect:
– Non-farm payrolls: +53,000 to +56,000, after a 23,000 decline in July
– Unemployment rate: 4.2%

A moderately weaker report could reinforce expectations for easier Fed policy,… https://t.co/LnORmPEnbh pic.twitter.com/X58L5AbTL1

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) September 4, 2026

The data this week points to a labor market that is growing slowly but staying stable.

UBS Global Wealth Management chief investment officer Mark Haefele said the Fed’s decision is “finely balanced.” He expects AI capital spending and a resilient economy to support growth as inflation cools, which could allow the Fed to hold rates where they are.

A softer jobs number would strengthen the case for keeping rates steady. A stronger number could push the Fed toward another hike.

Lululemon Drops 18% After Guidance Cut

Lululemon was the standout mover in premarket trading. Shares fell 18% after the company cut its revenue and profit outlook and reported a decline in second quarter revenue.

No other major earnings reports were scheduled for Friday.

Gold fell 0.56% to around $4,514. Bitcoin rose 3.26% to just above $81,187. Crude oil slipped 0.48% to around $90.86 a barrel.

The August jobs report will be the main event for markets heading into the weekend, with the Fed’s next policy meeting on the horizon.

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