Traders and analysts suggest that these twin catalysts could shape the next big move for Ripple’s native token, with projections ranging from short-term volatility to potential record-breaking gains.
Historical market data from JPMorgan indicates that when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates during times when U.S. equities are near all-time highs, stocks have consistently delivered strong returns. On average, equities have gained around 15% in the 12 months following such cuts. Interestingly, XRP has often outperformed equities during these same cycles, historically amplifying stock market gains by a factor of ten.
JPMorgan data shows Fed rate cuts near market highs historically deliver 15% stock gains in 12 months, often coinciding with 10x+ XRP rallies. Source: @GodsBurnt via X
This correlation highlights XRP’s tendency to benefit disproportionately from periods of heightened liquidity. If past patterns repeat, the current macro setup could provide the perfect backdrop for a new XRP rally. As market liquidity rises, speculative assets like XRP tend to attract increased investor demand, often translating into sharp upward moves in the XRP price chart.
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions remain pivotal for risk assets. A dovish Fed stance typically directs capital toward higher-risk investments, including cryptocurrencies. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as XRP, while additional liquidity provides the fuel for risk-taking behavior.
With the Fed meeting scheduled this week, traders are closely watching whether policymakers will opt for a 25-basis-point cut or a larger 50-basis-point move. A deeper cut could accelerate demand for cryptocurrencies, while a lighter adjustment may limit momentum. Notably, in December 2024, XRP dropped 10% following a modest Fed rate cut paired with a cautious policy outlook. This underscores the sensitivity of XRP price forecasts to monetary policy signals.
XRP recently climbed back above the psychological $3 level, signaling resilience ahead of two market-shaping developments—the Fed rate decision and the REX-Osprey XRP ETF launch. Analysts note that strong inflows into the ETF could mirror the success of Solana’s recent fund, which attracted $230 million in capital and pushed SOL prices 70% higher in just two months.
XRP was trading at around $3.02, down 0.25% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP price via Brave New Coin
If the REX-Osprey ETF sees similar momentum, it could provide a strong foundation for XRP to test higher resistance zones at $3.20 and $3.35, eventually challenging the all-time high price of $3.66. On the downside, failure to attract investor demand could see the current XRP price slip back toward $2.80 or even $2.50.
The introduction of the REX-Osprey XRP ETF is set to be a milestone moment for Ripple XRP. The fund will hold XRP directly while also investing in derivatives and other related assets. Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan described the strategy as a “clever regulatory workaround” that allows investors exposure to XRP ahead of pending spot ETF approvals.
Heatmap data shows that large clusters of short positions sit around $3.10 to $3.15. Analysts suggest that a break above this level could trigger a wave of liquidations, forcing short sellers to exit and fueling rapid gains. Futures activity also reflects this expectation, with open interest and trading volume both surging ahead of the ETF debut.
Multiple factors could align to drive the price of XRP higher. A significant Fed rate cut, strong ETF inflows, and regulatory clarity—such as progress on Ripple’s U.S. bank license application or spot ETF approvals—could send XRP above $3.35 and toward the record $3.66 level. Longer-term XRP price predictions suggest that sustained institutional adoption could lift XRP value beyond $5 in the coming months.
XRP is forming a rare 8-year accumulation base, with a confirmed breakout above $3.35 potentially targeting $5 and beyond, marking one of its most significant long-term setups. Source: NoahDefraties on TradingView
However, the bearish scenario cannot be dismissed. A smaller rate cut, weak ETF demand, or delays in regulatory approvals could pressure the Ripple XRP price back below $3. In that case, the XRP forecast points to a potential retest of lower support levels.
XRP latest news reflects a market at a crossroads. With the Fed decision and ETF launch just days away, traders face critical signals that could dictate whether XRP surges to new highs or consolidates further. The combination of technical resilience, growing institutional interest, and macroeconomic tailwinds provides a compelling setup for bulls.
Still, as with all cryptocurrencies, risks remain. Regulatory hurdles, unpredictable Fed guidance, and investor sentiment shifts could all alter the trajectory. For now, the price of XRP hovers at a crucial juncture—poised between a breakout that could define the next phase of its bull cycle and the possibility of renewed consolidation.
Also read: Solana $360 in Sight as Galaxy Digital’s $486 Million Bet Sparks Institutional FOMO
